Aspiration vs Authoritarianism

Summary

Aspirational Chinese will inevitably lead to the democratization of the Chinese government.

Assumptions

  • Government is so corrupt it is unable to transform itself and therefore will have transformation forced upon it. E.g. Xi Jin Ping's politburo is conservative.

Model/Theory

Enabling factors

  • Chinese are becoming wealthier and want more incl. democracy/human rights.
  • Internet means news gets out and then is covered up afterwards, making the Party's role in censorship embarrassingly clear.
  • Chinese are looking for ideologies, something to belief in. Party fails to provide that.
  • Frustration over Party corruption and lack of meritocracy. Also growing inequality.

Evaluation

  • Are dissidents representative? Are they the pioneers of a new movement or an irrelevant fringe? Are western journalists looking for a story making something out of nothing?