US's counter to Hundred Year Marathon

Summary

The US's decline and China's rise can be thwarted only if US first recognizes what is really going on, that China is running its Hundred Year Marathon.

Assumptions

China is pursuing its Hundred Year Marathon

Model/Theory

Steps for America:

  1. Recognize the problem
  2. Keep track of your gifts (to China)
  3. Measure competitiveness
  4. Develop a competitiveness strategy
  5. Find common ground at home (against China)
  6. Build vertical coalitions of nations
  7. Protect political dissidents
  8. Stand up to anti-american competitive conduct.
  9. Identify and shame polluters
  10. Expose corruption and censorship.
  11. Support prodemocracy reformers
  12. Monitor and influence the debates between China's hawks and reformers.

US should be careful of three intellectual traps:

  1. Premature fear of China's rise.
  2. Fail to appreciate that China does plan to replace the US.
  3. US policymakers have historically helped China's hawks, so do not want to admit that was a mistake.

Predictions

Evidence

Evaluation