China's Hundred Year Marathon

Summary

The Chinese government's secret plan to replace the US as the world's leading hegemonic power by 2049, 100 years after the founding of the People's Republic of China.

Assumptions

  1. US Engagement has not/will not bring complete cooperation.
  2. China is not on the road to democracy.
  3. China is not a fragile flower.
  4. China does not want to be like the US.
  5. Chinese hawks (鹰派) are strong, Chinese moderates are weak.

Theory/Model

The Chinese government has been actively employing the Warring States period 'Strategic lessons' to restore China to the top of the geopolitical hierarchy by 2049.

  1. Induce complacency to avoid alerting your opponent.
  2. Manipulate your opponent's advisers.
  3. Be patient - for decades, or longer - to achieve victory.
  4. Steal your opponent's ideas and technology for strategic purposes.
  5. Military might is not the critical factor for winning a long-term competition.
  6. Recognize that the hegemon will take extreme, even reckless action to retain its dominant position.
  7. Never lose sight of shi.
  8. Establish and employ metrics for measuring your status relative to other potential challengers.
  9. Always be vigilant to avoid being encircled or deceived by others.

Predictions

In 2049 China, with GDP 3x US, will dominate a unipolar world (or potentially a duel polar with US or tripolar with India and US).

  1. China will harmonize dissent on the internet.
  2. China will continue to oppose democratization.
  3. China will form alliances with America's adversaries.
  4. China will export the airpocalypse
  5. China's growth strategy involves significant pollution and contamination.
  6. Cancer Villages
  7. Cheater's win - China will unleash national champions.
  8. China will increasingly undermine the UN and WTO
  9. China will proliferate weapons for profit.

Evidence

 

Evaluation